But the economic impact of student loan debt relief varies depending on the amount of relief provided and whom it targets. Broadly, Moody’s holds that various forms of student debt relief would act like a tax cut stimulus to economic fast payday loans Greeneville TN activity, leading to a modest increase in household consumption and investment. Long term, a reduction in student loan debt could help improve the formation of small businesses and households, as well as spur an increase in homeownership.
Blanket student loan debt forgiveness would mostly benefit people who would have likely paid off their loans over the long term. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York estimated that the average monthly loan payment in 2018 was between $200 and $299. And because the households of college graduates are more affluent, they’re more likely to save that extra money than spend it on necessary items, blunting its impact on the economy at large.
William Foster, Moody’s lead sovereign analyst for the U.S. government, warns of the “moral hazard” of widespread student debt relief.
While that extra cash would certainly be helpful to a college graduate’s finances, in the end, it would probably just add to their household’s disposable income
“You risk, somehow, creating a moral hazard, meaning that perhaps future students who didn’t benefit from the debt forgiveness today would expect debt forgiveness in the future,” says Foster, vice president and senior credit officer at Moody’s. “They would then, as a result, not worry as much about the debt they’re taking out because they’re expecting it to be forgiven in the future.”
In December, Biden extended the student loan payment freeze until May from February. Continue reading